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World's brainiest chick wrong again:


Marilyn vos Savant's column for today:


Say you plan to roll a die 20 times. Which of these results is more likely: (a) 11111111111111111111, or (b) 66234441536125563152?

—Loren Booda, Arlington, Va.

 
In theory, the results are equally likely. Both specify the number that must appear each time the die is rolled. (For example, the 10th number in the first series must be a 1. The 10th number in the second series must be a 3.) Each number—1 through 6—has the same chance of landing faceup.

But let’s say you tossed a die out of my view and then said that the results were one of the above. Which series is more likely to be the one you threw? Because the roll has already occurred, the answer is (b). It’s far more likely that the roll produced a mixed bunch of numbers than a series of 1’s.


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Damn, gal, why you tryin to dumb it down? At least get it right when you do.  They're still just as likely. Take a lesson from ol Tater here. Change the first sentence of your final paragraph to "But let's say you tossed a die out of my view and then said the results were a string of ones, and then a string of mixed numbers." Then you'd be right. See the difference?